Although Democrat Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million, she still lost the 2016 presidential election to Republican Donald Trump. A closer look into the votes cast reveals that one of the factors of Clinton’s loss could be attributed to her underperformance in rural areas. New research suggests that while she nearly matched Barack Obama’s 2012 performance in most urban areas, she failed to match the Democratic presidential nominees in the last five elections in the less populated areas of the country.
The research was released this week by the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire and was conducted by Dante Scala — associate professor of political science and a faculty fellow at the Carsey School — and Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer at the Carsey School and professor of sociology.
The researchers examined voting along a rural to urban continuum, rather than treating rural and urban as a polarity. They found significant variations in voting behavior among both urban and rural places that persist over the last five presidential elections.
“Yet, defining 2016 as the tale of two Americas — one urban, one rural — hinders a nuanced understanding of the country’s political geography,” the researchers stated. “Many political commentators mistakenly caricature rural America as a single entity, but our research … shows that complex variations in voting patterns persist among both urban and rural places.”
Several headlines after the election pushed the urban-rural divide that existed in the election. “How the Election Revealed the Divide Between City and Country,” read a piece by The Atlantic. The researches suggest that while the overall premise is true, it’s a lot more complicated than that because political pundits don’t often include suburban voters or towns adjacent to suburbs.
Clinton received 2.1 million fewer votes in rural America than Obama did four years earlier even though 531,000 more votes were cast there in 2016. Large urban counties are the base of the Democratic Party as well as their suburbs and the cores of smaller metropolitan areas. The outer edges of smaller urban areas and the vast rural regions tend to be Republican territory.
“Through the last five presidential elections voting patterns were consistent along a rural-urban continuum,” the researchers said. “Democrats did best at the urban end of the continuum and Republicans at the rural end. What is distinctly different in 2016 is that Hillary Clinton did far worse across the entire rural end of the continuum than any Democratic candidate in the previous four presidential elections.”
At one end of the continuum are the urban core counties of large metropolitan areas. This is where Democrats have received their greatest support in the last five presidential elections. Al Gore and John Kerry averaged slightly less than 60 percent of the vote in these areas in 2000 and 2004. Barack Obama boosted the Democrats’ urban vote share in 2008 and 2012, and Clinton maintained it in 2016. Also, the suburbs of these large metropolitan areas gave both Obama in 2012 and Clinton slightly less than a majority (49.6 and 47.8 percent, respectively).
Next on the continuum, the suburbs of smaller urban areas are more strongly Republican. It is at this point on the rural–urban continuum that the contrast between earlier elections and 2016 is evident. Here the gap between Democratic support in 2012 and 2016 widened, which ultimately led to Clinton’s loss.
At the rural end of the continuum, counties tend to be more Republican, but there is variation within these rural areas. Democrats consistently did worse in counties remote from urban areas, and in those without large towns of 10,000 to 50,000 people. This pattern continued in 2016, but there was a substantial decline in support for Clinton across all types of rural counties. For example, in 2012, Obama received 41.6 percent of the vote in rural counties adjacent to metropolitan areas that contained a large town and 38.9 percent in those that did not. Clinton received just 33.1 percent in these adjacent large town counties and 29.7 percent in other adjacent counties.
“Certainly, these rural vote totals are dwarfed by those in urban areas. But, from the suburban periphery of smaller urban areas to the most far-flung rural areas, Clinton’s inability to match the performance of any Democratic candidate since at least 2000 contributed to her defeat in crucial swing states such as Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin,” the researchers said. “Though many commentators argued that the faster population growth and growing diversity on the urban side of the rural-urban continuum would give Democrats a significant advantage in 2016, the election demonstrated that what happens at the rural end of the continuum remains important.”
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37 responses to Research Shows Clinton Loss Is More Complex Than a Simple Urban-Rural Divide
Trump was labeled as Bad, “We The People” Deemed her worst………
Trump is not a politician and would say thing as it is. It is a refreshing treat indeed.
In the abundance of water the fool is thirsty…typical
A closer look into the votes cast reveals that one of the factors of Clinton’s loss could be attributed to her underperformance in rural areas. New research suggests that while she nearly matched Barack Obama’s 2012 performance in most urban areas, she failed to match the Democratic presidential nominees in the last five elections in the less populated areas of the country.
Interesting, but I don’t much care about why the wretch lost. I’m just thrilled It was a humiliating loss. The woman’s only value to the world is as mulch.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/29caaba39c84e213868be66f48a7b3489e2f7b0a2358ab63c9710b356b1bbc74.jpg
The looks on the faces of people like Matthews and Maddow on election night will stick with me forever as a most pleasant memory
Yep. I still watch the melt down on youtube.
HC is too corrupted and too immoral to run for any office. The only places she should run to is either NK or Syria.
And fit in nicely I would say. Like minded all.
Trump is making America great again riding only on the success of Obama’s policies.Mr. one year in office and to dumb to accomplish anything.
The above piece perfectly illustrates how the left continues to be confused and distraught over the loss.
The fact most of the country was aware electing the Clintons would be disastrous totally escapes the leftist.
So what you think Trump has been?
I get a kick from all those whom trash the president and his family to no end.
The tunnel vision they all possess astounds me.
The Trumps are all accomplished in the world in which they live.
Donald himself is quite learned and skilled in the dealing with individuals across the economic, political and social spectrum. His comfort level never suffers whether he is dealing with the rank and file or the head of state. He cannot be intimidated by those in position of power and/or wealth. Nor is he at at a loss when he is confronted by a situation requiring understanding the plight of those outside his social or economic realm.
The people elected this man because they are sick of the elite hiding behind diplomacy and political correctness. We are sick and tired of the elite tell us what is best for us all the while showing us they are afraid to stand up and defend their own country.
There are many examples of the elite pussyfooting around ending with their announcements that agreements have been reached only to find out later (when it’s too late) that we have been taken. And then when the next election cycle comes and goes the whole scenario begins all over.
This president is here to drain the swamp and drain the swamp he will, along with MAGA, regardless who objects or stands in his path.
Focused and driven to do right for this country.
I will never be convinced this female won by 3 million votes…remember the recount effort? Two days in a Democrat judge stopped it because it was showing the machines cast votes for Hillary that was meant for Trump and then their is the double voting and illegal problems…Democrats vote early and often…even their dead vote.
It was most likely closer to a tie than her winning the popular vote. You can call me all the names you want, Democrats cheat and those 3 million plus are more like 500k less – cheaters.
Folks don’t look at where those so called 3 million came from…..ALL CALIFORNIA. That doesn’t make it the popular vote…it makes it illegal alien vote and California nut cases. California doesn’t run this country, or speak for it. After considering the California numbers and seeing where the 3 million came from….I HAVE BEEN SPREADING THE WORD…..CALIFORNIA IS NOT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA…THERE IS A WHOLE OTHER COUNTRY OUT THERE, FORMED BY OUR CONSTITUION, AND SUPPORTED BY TRUE AMERICANS……CALIFORNIA IS LITTLE MEXICO.
hillary won nothing, the public vote wins nothing during a presidential election. hillary didn’t even get a majority of the public vote, it was less than 50%. what it shows is the voters didn’t like her and to those who still jump on the public vote win, one county or state is not a majority as they have found out. Go Trump! hillary the big loser
Illegal voters in California alone would give crooked HC more than 3 million votes, and if you added NY, she would probably got anthother 3 mil more of illegal votes.
The Democrate cheat so much that is the reason they do not want voter ID. I bet that anyone could go to any voting booth in NY and said that he lost his registration card and no name in book, he would be allowed to vote and all would vote for democratic candidates.
I’ve been a police officer in NYC for 21 years (just retired) and that is exactly what happens
I have worked the Polls for most of those 21 years. I am in charge of watching the Board of Election employees they hire temporarily and you can vote in a paper ballot if not in their register books. I also noted when I went to vote myself in the Bronx she didn’t even ask for my ID just my name and address
One time they even handed me during the primaries a Democrat voting card when it says next to my name Republican. They did this to my significant other when he voted earlier in the day also
Clinton was given the gift of Donald Trump as an opponent and still lost. What Clinton, the DNC, and the the writers of all these stories missed is the anti-Clinton factor-how wide spread and deep the loathing for Clinton is. I know a few people who voted for her as anti-Trump voters, but the Trump voters I know went to the polls as soon as they opened early, weeks before the second email scandal, to vote against her.
She stood by her rapist-husband, and tried to destroy the rape victims. That says it all.
Thank you for that reminder, sometimes I hyperfocus on the four-man she is responsible for having killed overseas. You don’t need Alzheimer’s to not be able to remember with her numerous crimes or the crimes that occurred because of her lack of attention or action; the list is just too long.
The only things would get her attention was to sell her office to whoever would give money to her multiple piggy bank crooked foundations.
Didn’t Obama think those rural people lung to their bibles and their guns, so they were lesser people?
Didn’t Hillary call them deplorable?
Hows that arrogant “I’m better and smarter than you” elitist attitude workin out for you ?
Who really cares. One more rich bitch without a job!
You can analyze all you want, and yes, Hillary underperformed, etc., etc., etc. But a greater element in the 2016 election is the phenomenon no analyst factored in even after the primaries was Donald J. Trump. The man is an overachiever. He ran the campaign employing science no one even heard of. Jared Kushner is a boy wonder, a genius, and he was the brains behind the campaign. Donald Trump himself, made decisions and took actions over recommendations, strategies, and advice from the experts he hired. He took down all his primary opponents one by one. He was mercilessly effective. He made every single one of his opponents look like they didn’t even want to be president. He made them look like they ran campaigns the way he wanted them to, and made them look bad. Remember the video of Jebb Bush asking his audience to applaud, with his arms down, looking so tired and without energy, just like Trump described him. He drew people like a magnet. It was an amazing campaign. Trump woke people the hell up.
There’s another element people don’t talk about. Various pundits and politicians said that it would take a miracle for Trump to win. I think there were 100% right. I’m more and more convinced Trump won with assistance of Devine providence. No scandal, no accusation, no evidence shown against him stuck and affected his run, even to his own expectations, especially the 11th hour surprise of the Access Hollywood video, by Billy Bush, who by the way, I think is still looking for a job while Trump went straight into and still holds his. Another evidence of spiritual component in the fact that Trump not just won the elections over the Democrats. Trump won the elections over the media, which tried everything possible in the kitchen to destroy, derail, and deter, Trump’s train, he also won the election against the Republicans which still today is against him. Trump appears to have his supporters and God on his side. Everything else and Satan are against him. He still is the President of the United States of America.
An absolutely accurate observation – Trump is a ‘type’ of King Cyrus (Isaiah Chapter 45) – he is God’s man for this hour in history. He is God’s ‘wreaking ball’
Ezekiel 38-39 is the Gog of Magog war. There’s massive consensus that this war is around the corner with Russia leading a coalition that includes Iran, Syria, Turkey, Sudan, and others. The result of this attack is the complete destruction of Israel’s enemies. While Israel is very powerful, they would need more than the iron dome and a lot of fire power for defense and respond. The US could be the source for that, but will take heavy casualties and damage.
The US is responding to a Christo-friendly president with psychotic hatred and deranged syndrome. The Constitution still shields abortion and same sex, which is an official national government denial of God as Creator. That bears consequences.
You point out: “. . . psychotic hatred and deranged syndrome . . . ”
All signs of demonic influence manifesting in those who hold to a ‘liberal, ungodly agenda’ of sins and abominations referred to in the Bible.
They are the party of slavery, KKK, segregation, and racism. They claim that that was reversed by “party switching” but emancipation was motivated by faith, which they hate and it is what allows the to support abortion and same sex stuff. That didn’t switch! The voted God out of their Convention.
You are correct again . . . excellent comments – thank you!
Don’t forget that Hitler used the KKK example to disenfranchise the Jews and Margaret Sanger’s example(both Democrats) to further their “master race” agenda.
Simply put, she lost because she was a terrible candidate with a miserable message.
The extent of her ‘message’ would seem to be . . . “I’m next, I’m next . . . it’s my turn!”
hillary…..this educated, FEMALE, professional would never vote for you because of YOU…YOUR lies…..YOUR ILLEGAL activity….and that self righteous smirk YOU can’t seem to wipe off of YOUR face.
” … Clinton Loss Is More Complex … ” In what deranged dimension? The loss was simple, straight-forward, and predictable. A boastful, arrogant outsider beat the vast left-wing conspiracy of lies and deceit. It was every bit as simple as that.