One of the main focal points surrounding the recent US-Cuba diplomatic discussions has been increasing Internet and mobile phone access among the Cuban population. Around 25 percent of the Cuban population has access to the Internet, which is under strict surveillance and regulation by the government. President Obama named new technological development one of his key ingredients of a successful recipe for new relations between the two countries.
New information and communication technologies (new ICTs) such as the Internet and mobile phones are considered by many to be instruments of democratization. The abundance of information online and the speed with which individuals can acquire, produce, and share information provides the potential for information penetrating the public sphere that is different from the state controlled media messages handed down by most authoritarian regimes.
While much of the focus regarding the impacts of new ICTs are democratic, the economic benefits of developing technological infrastructures in countries are numerous. These economic benefits are the driving factors for the Cuban and US governments to move past the longtime embargo. In the age of globalization, the economic advantages of technological development are too great for most authoritarian governments to ignore. Choosing isolation over technological development in a country increases the risk of falling behind economically.
Developing new ICT infrastructure for economic purposes, however, increases communication outlets and flows, presenting the possibility of democratic political socialization. This is known as the dictator’s dilemma, and described by the researchers Christopher Kedzie and Janni Aragon, who note “…economic efficiency and political efficacy are positively related to each other, and negatively related to authoritarian control.” That is, loosening control over media systems for economic gains increases the chances of sociopolitical change.
The dictator’s dilemma and the democratizing power of new ICTs have been popular topics among scholars and pundits, particularly relating to the protests and conflicts during the Arab Spring. But is there any empirical support for these phenomena? China is a country with a relatively vibrant Internet and mobile phone environment, but one that is heavily regulated and controlled by the government.
Beginning in the 1990s, the Chinese media opened up to commercialization. Many experts thought that the introduction of capital into the Chinese media system would erode governmental control over content. Ya-Wen Lei, a Junior Fellow at the Society of Fellows at Harvard University, produced an article regarding the attitudes of Internet users in China.
Lei’s article titled “The Political Consequences of the Rise of the Internet: Political Beliefs and Practices of Chinese Netizens,” appeared in the July-September 2011 edition of Political Communication. The term “Netizens” (Net Citizens) describes individuals who use the Internet as citizens of the world connected through the availability of the Internet.
In an effort to empirically test the political beliefs of Chinese citizens, Lei used the 2007 China World Value Survey. The population of the 2007 China World Value Survey included 1,576 Chinese citizens between the ages 18-70. The researcher sought to distinguish the beliefs of netizens, traditional media users, and non-media consumers. Individuals who accessed information from the Internet within the previous week of the survey were categorized as netizens. The study measured two variables pertaining to political beliefs and one regarding collective action.
Compared to traditional media users and non-media users, Chinese netizens were much more likely to be politically opinionated. Netizens in China were more likely to possess dissenting views, diverging from the traditional hegemonic political ideology in the country. “Specifically, they (netizens) are more likely to simultaneously embrace the norms of democracy, be more critical of the political conditions and the party-state, and be willing to engage in politics,” states Lei. In addition, netizens in China are more likely to have participated in collective political action.
Lei contends that given the commercial and technological advantages provided by the Internet, Chinese political elites could not pass on the opportunity to adapt if China was to continue its rise in the international hierarchy. Confident in their ability to control and manipulate the traditional media, the Chinese government likely assumed they could successfully control the Internet.
To be sure, the government in China is not likely at serious risk of overthrow by popular demand anytime soon. But the winds of societal change could be blowing. These changes in the Internet using population in China could provide a look at the forthcoming shifts in Cuba. The motivation of the US to open relations with Cuba, and Obama’s emphasis on increasing communication technologies, are likely more capitalistic than democratic. The US government does not require that a government be democratic in order to conduct business with it, as is evident by the historical record of close ties with and support of authoritarian governments by the United States. Nevertheless, a bi-product of increased access to the Internet and mobile phones in Cuba could very well contribute to raising democratic aspirations and collective action capabilities of Cuban citizens.
