A new poll of New Hampshire GOP primary voters gives former Donald Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski a 20-point lead in the Republican U.S. Senate primary even before he announces his candidacy. It also reflects the emerging view among GOP observers that he would be the prohibitive favorite if and when he enters the race.

“Our core finding is that Corey Lewandowski has a strong base near 30 percent and is most certainly the frontrunner as of today,” the political firm Vote Adjustments, LLC said in a statement. “What is surprising is the number of people who without prompting know Lewandoski’s name and his strong association with President Trump.”

“These poll numbers are very humbling. I am grateful for the support of the people of N.H. and further encouraged to enter the Senate race,” Lewandowski told NHJournal.

While Lewandowski has yet to formally announce his decision about possible Senate bid, three other Republicans are already in the race: retired Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, attorney Corky Messner and former NH House Speaker Bill O’Brien.

None of the three announced candidates broke out of single digits, and the largest response by far was “undecided” at 49 percent. Still, having nearly one-third of the primary electorate locked down before even entering the race is good news for Lewandowski.

 

Source: Vote Adjustments, LLC

Democrats apparently see Lewandowski as the most serious threat as well. The New Hampshire Democratic Party is already running digital ads attacking him and he’s the only Republican involved in the 2020 Senate race to get a shout out from Democratic presidential candidates during Saturday’s state convention.

Polls show that incumbent Democrat Senator Jeanne Shaheen is relatively popular among New Hampshire voters, but the Washington Post also listed her seat as one of the 10 “Most Flippable” in 2020. If Republicans are able to to take it, they would all but assure themselves of continued control of the Senate until 2022.

Todd Chewing with the Messner campaign told NHJournal in a statement: “Less than a week from our campaign’s launch, we are encouraged by the warm reception Corky has received from grassroots Republicans across New Hampshire. In the coming months, we look forward to growing our campaign and sharing Corky’s commonsense conservative message with voters.”

Ross Berry of Vote Adjustments, LLC  said the pro-Lewandowski response was so strong that at first he was taken aback. “I couldn’t believe it when I saw the results coming in, so I monitored some of the calls thinking ‘maybe we’re doing something wrong,’ but no — as soon as we would read the names the respondents would say ‘Oh, Corey! Yeah, I’m for Corey,’ or ‘He’s the Trump guy,'” Berry told NHJournal.

“It’s really surprising, not just how many people recognize Corey Lewandowski’s name, but know that he was Trump’s campaign manager. Think about it: How many people in New Hampshire could name Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager?”

Polls show that incumbent Democrat Senator Jeanne Shaheen is relatively popular among New Hampshire voters, but the Washington Post also listed her seat as one of the 10 “Most Flippable” in 2020. If Republicans are able to to take it, they would all but assure themselves of continued control of the Senate until 2022.

Berry, a former executive director of the state GOP and longtime Granite State political operative said it was too early to say that the GOP senate primary would definitely be a “Trump primary” as some Republican consultants are saying, but he concedes that Lewandowski’s presence in the race would make the Trump issue even more central to the election. And the fact that immigration (at 38 percent) was the top issue among likely GOP primary voters also shows Trump’s influence on the NHGOP electorate.

“It’s still early, and there are some very good candidates in this race,” Berry said.

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Four hundred two (402) individuals were sampled consisting of likely Republican primary voters between September 5th and 6th and has a margin of error of ±4.9 at the 95 percent confidence level.